Northwestern will be playing in just their second road game of the year and havenât beaten Penn State since 2004.
A lot of hype around this team since they are 5-0 SU & ATS and just put up 704 total yards, but that was against Indianaâs atrocious defense. Let's not over react on Northwestern! I think the oddsmakers knew the public would jump on NW as under dogs. Northwestern likes to spread you out and play up tempo on offense as they feature QB Kain Colter who will run a lot and even play receiver when they bring in Trevor Sieman who did have 300+ yards passing a week ago, but again that was at home and against Indiana's 94th ranked total defense. Penn State is ranked 32nd and is the best defense Northwestern has faced all year. Penn State has outscored opponents 49-0 in the first quarter and has not allowed a first half TD all year not even to Ohio week 1 who runs a very similar offense and Penn State is a lot better and a lot more confident than they were in week 1.
Penn State has the linebackers led by Michael Mawdy will be able to stop the up tempo offense. This will be the best group of LB that NW has faced to date and they have to do it on the road. Penn State's new look offense features a team that's very balance and is a better team when they pass the ball under Matt McGloin who has some pretty good weapons as Bill O'brien has instituted an offense that utilizes passing the the TE's, Sound familiar? The Patriots sure loved throwing to TE's and it has worked so far -
o Kyle Carter TE - 19 rec 235 yards 1 TD
o Matt Lehman - 9 rec 137 2 TD
o WR Allen Robinson 32 rec 439 yards 5 TD
Northwestern is ranked 114th in pass yards allowed and their defense is suspect. In their only road game they allowed Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib to throw for 482 yards 4TD and 1 INT. Northwestern may have to be concerned with the rushing attack to as Penn State has rushed it over 174 yards in back to back weeks. Zach Zwinak has turned it on and is averaging 4.9 ypc. Now Northwestern's defense on paper ranked 20th, but they faced an FCS foe, 122nd, 114th, 85th, last week they faced Indiana ranked 27th and allowed 5.7 yards per carry. Pressuring the QB always plays a critical role in a game. Penn State is going to throw it 50% of the time and Matt McGloin has shown when given the time he can complete passes. With that said Penn State is 35th in allowing sacks while Northwestern is 84th with a meager 3.72 sack%.
On the other side Northwestern's rushing QB and spread offense tends to see more sacks and Penn State is 26th with a 7.49% sack % while Northwestern is 70th in allowing sacks. That's a key to any team converting on third down and even red zone opportunities and if you ask me Penn State has all the momentum from recent play and the stronger defensive unit and offensive line which will be the biggest key to winning the game as long as they do not turn the ball. Turnover margin â Penn State is 16th at +1.4/game while Northwestern is 54th. In their only road game they were lucky to be +2 that allowed them to win by 1 point.
